Wall Street surged on hopes of an imminent Gaza war ceasefire

29/11/2024 - 02:00 UTC

· But Putin’s nuke threat and breach of the Hezbollah war ceasefire also briefly dragged Dow Futures; Gold got some brief boost in a holiday-thinned trading day

Wall Street Futures surged this week on hopes & hypes of an imminent Gaza war ceasefire after Biden successfully brokered Hezbollah war ceasefire. Gold and oil slips to some extent. Also, Trump’s selection of Bessent as the next US Treasury Secretary boosted UST, dragged USD/US bond yields to some extent, and buoyed US stocks, while undercutting Gold. But on early Thursday, Gold also got some boost, while Wall Street Futures slipped briefly after the Lebanese army alleged Israel violated the ceasefire several times just on the 2nd day, launching air/done strikes and using various weapons on Lebanese territory.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said:

· IDF bombed targets in southern Lebanon Thursday belongs to the militant group Hezbollah.

· IDF carried out additional drone strike to target two Hezbollah operatives entering known rocket launch sites in southern Lebanon

· The operatives were targeted in a drone strike to thwart the threat

· The site had been used to fire dozens of rockets at Israel in the past month

· Earlier, fighter jets struck a Hezbollah medium-range rocket facility, after the military identified activity there

· IDF also fired warning shots in several areas of southern Lebanon throughout the day, to disperse Hezbollah operatives attempting to reach no-go zones near the border

· The IDF is still deployed to southern Lebanon, and it has 60 days to withdraw under the ceasefire deal

· During that time, the Lebanese Army will gradually take responsibility for southern Lebanon and an American-led committee that will adjudicate complaints regarding potential ceasefire violations will be established

The Israeli PM Netanyahu saID he ordered IDF to prepare for ‘intensive war’ if Hezbollah breaks ceasefire:

· I gave the IDF instructions---if there is a massive violation of the agreement, not only will we operate surgically like we are doing now, and with force, every time

· I said, if there is a massive violation of the agreement, I instructed the IDF to prepare for an intensive war

· The ceasefire in Lebanon can be short, and that Israel enforced it on its first day

· Asked why Israel is not creating a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, Netanyahu notes that the “threat of a ground invasion has been removed”

· Residents of the north will return in stages, when they feel that what I’m saying is correct

· I will do everything so that Iran won’t be nuclear

On Thursday, the IDF Chief Of Staff Halevi said:

· IDF will enforce the ceasefire with Hezbollah with fire to enable the return of the displaced residents of the north to their homes

· This agreement is the result of months of fighting and in particular the last three months.

· A lot of achievements in Lebanon, intense work, very determined work, the killing of the entire senior echelon, the killing of all the commanders

· It is now moving to another stage, with the same determination--- and we know exactly that Hezbollah came to this agreement from a place of lack of choice and weakness

· Exactly with these strengths, we are also going to do the enforcement, no less than that. We will enforce it with fire, enforce it very, very strongly

· The residents in the north are looking now and want to see us very determined on enforcement so that they can return, and this is our duty to them, and our duty to ourselves

Overall, Lebanon war temporary ceasefire/truce is still fragile and just a one day old, but as the military grade strength of Hezbollah may have been significantly reduced by IDF, there may not be any ‘massive’ breach of ceasefire by Hezbollah till 20th Jabuary’25, when Trump is set to take charge of White House, which is suffering for a strong global leadership vacuum for a long time under senile Biden.

On Thursday, Israeli PM Netanyahu also said he is ready for a ceasefire in Gaza to free hostages, but won’t end the war:

· I would accept a pause in the war in Gaza,

· I am ready for a ceasefire in the south when we think we can achieve the release of the hostages

· I am ready for a ceasefire at any time

· I will not accept an end to the war

· Israel is doing many many things to try to reach a deal

· Now that there is a ceasefire in Lebanon and Hamas leader Sinwar is dead, the conditions have significantly improved for a hostage deal with Hamas.

· Hamas hoped that Iran would come to save it, but it did not happen, it hoped that the Houthis would come to save it – it did not happen.

· Above all, it hoped that Hezbollah would come to save it, and indeed Nasrallah said on the second day when he attacked, We will continue until Israel stops its attacks on Hamas; There is no Hezbollah.

· That’s why I think the conditions have changed very much for the better, not only because of the separation of the theaters but also because of the elimination of Sinwar.

· The conditions in Lebanon are different than in Gaza – Israel is trying to destroy Hamas but merely prevent Hezbollah from rearming.

· While Israel can prevent arms smuggling in Lebanon by bombing border crossings and striking Syria, that can’t happen in Gaza, because Israel won’t attack Egypt.

· Therefore, Israel has to remain on the Philadelphi corridor, the road on the Egypt-Gaza border.

· We accepted a ceasefire in Lebanon because we achieved exactly what we intended to achieve.

· Conditions have improved for reaching a potential deal that would lead to the release of Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip.

· The conditions have very much changed for the better.

Meanwhile, Russia intensified its Ukraine attack to consolidate its position as much as possible before any potential ceasefire after Trump takes charge of US geopolitics & policies. On Thursday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that 100 missiles and 466 drones were launched on targets across Ukraine this week in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. Combined missile and drone strikes targeted facilities where Western-supplied long-range missile systems were deployed, the ministry stated.

As per reports, early on Thursday, a large-scale attack with 90 missiles and 100 Geran-2-type drones was directed against 17 "key Ukrainian military facilities," the ministry said, confirming an earlier statement by President Putin in which he also warned that Moscow would respond to attacks on its territory with the recently unveiled Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

At the same time, Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Putin of using the new missile to spread fear and terror, while also describing it as his tactic to force US President-elect Trump to agree to his terms for ending the conflict.

On Thursday, US President Biden condemned Russia's overnight attacks on Ukraine, which left large parts of the country without electricity, calling the strikes ‘outrageous’--- the attack "serves as yet another reminder of the urgency and importance of supporting the Ukrainian people in their defense against Russian aggression."