In the week ahead: Trump Speaks, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Flash Services & Manufacturing PMIs

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward momentum, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains on Friday.

Investor sentiment turned optimistic following indications that U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs are unlikely to take effect before April 1.

Meanwhile, the European Commission strongly opposed Trump’s tariff proposal, calling it a move "in the wrong direction." In a statement during Friday’s European session, the Commission warned that the European Union (EU) would respond "firmly and immediately" to any unjustified trade barriers.

Further strengthening the euro, renewed optimism surrounding a potential truce between Russia and Ukraine has offered a significant boost.

Gold prices retreated below the $2,900 mark on Friday as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. Mixed economic data from the United States (US) contributed to market volatility, while the US dollar extended its decline to yearly lows, and Treasury yields fell sharply.

US retail sales saw a steep decline in January, exerting further pressure on the Greenback, which continues to weaken across the board. While gold initially benefited from this development, traders opted to lock in profits after the metal’s recent rally.

Following the weak retail sales data, market participants increasingly priced in the likelihood of more than one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.

Oil prices edged lower on Friday as hopes for a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine fueled expectations of eased global supply disruptions and a rollback of sanctions against Moscow. However, losses were contained by a delay in the immediate implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, which helped stabilize market sentiment.

Market sentiment was influenced by President Donald Trump's directive to initiate talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war. The move followed separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, during which both leaders expressed interest in negotiating peace.

As oil markets navigate shifting geopolitical dynamics and economic policies, traders will closely monitor trade negotiations, potential sanction adjustments, and upcoming energy demand trends for further direction.

The US 500 closed just shy of an all-time high on Friday as weaker-than-expected retail sales and lingering inflation worries tempered gains.

U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in January, raising concerns about consumer strength. The 0.9% decline—following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December—was significantly worse than economists’ forecasts of a 0.2% drop.

In corporate news, Moderna gained 3%, despite posting a wider-than-expected Q4 loss. The biotech firm continues to cut costs and manage declining demand for its Covid vaccine. GameStop rose 2.5% amid reports that the company is exploring investments in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as well as alternative assets.

As markets digest economic data, trade policies, and geopolitical developments, investors will keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s next moves and progress in Ukraine peace talks for further direction.