Feb

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. Unemployment Rate, UoM Consumer Sentiment

07/02/2025 - 08:13 UTC

The US dollar was almost unchanged against most major currencies on Thursday, with the dollar index (USDX) losing almost 2% in the past three days, with investors wary as they await Friday's January nonfarm payrolls report, which will offer further clues about the future direction of U.S. interest rates.

Wall Street had a mixed session on Thursday, with Amazon adding pressure on the main stock indices, however, an ongoing commitment to AI infrastructure spending lifted major chip stocks, notably NVIDIA, which dominates the market for cutting-edge AI processors.

Amazon’s shares tumbled after hours following a Q1 2025 revenue forecast that fell short of analysts' estimates. While Amazon beat earnings expectations for the previous quarter, it anticipates headwinds from a stronger dollar impacting international sales. Furthermore, AWS, like other cloud providers, reported weaker-than-expected growth. This raises questions about the return on investment in AI, particularly as major tech firms plan to boost AI-related capital expenditure.

Nvidia shares rose again Thursday after Morgan Stanley reiterated its "Top Pick" rating, viewing the recent selloff sparked by DeepSeek competition concerns as a buying opportunity.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after the US reaffirmed its commitment to increasing domestic oil production, unsettling traders already concerned about a larger-than-expected rise in US crude stockpiles. Both WTI and Brent were pressured by the growing inventories, which jumped last week due to weaker demand amid refinery maintenance.

On the cryptos front, the two top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under pressure following the recent selloff triggered by tariffs imposed by the US, trading lower by approximately 4% and 13% respectively.

For Friday, the long-awaited January Non-Farm Payrolls report comes out. This is a major event that could significantly impact the US dollar. The forecast is for 169,000 new jobs, which would be a slight decrease from December. Some price action could also be observed upon the release of the U.S. Unemployment Rate, Consumer Credit, The UoM inflation expectations and consumer sentiment surveys as well as testimonies from FOOMC members Kugler and Bowman.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair ended the session on Thursday with minor losses. Market participants showed little enthusiasm for the latest Eurozone Retail Sales data, which aligned with expectations, while US dollar traders stayed cautious ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Eurozone Retail Sales grew 1.9% year-over-year in December, in line with forecasts and slightly improving from the revised 1.6% reading for November. However, on a month-over-month basis, sales fell by 0.2%, underperforming the prior flat reading of 0.0%, which was also revised downward.

US economic data on Thursday was largely mid-tier, with weekly Initial Jobless Claims increasing to 219K for the week ending January 31, exceeding market expectations of 213K.

All eyes are now on Friday’s NFP report, with economists expecting a slowdown in job growth.

Gold

Gold’s upward momentum stalled on Thursday as a recovery in US Treasury yields and a resilient US dollar weighed on the metal. Investors appeared to be locking in profits ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could inject fresh volatility into financial markets

Gold also struggled to capitalize on dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who acknowledged the central bank is well-positioned for eventual rate cuts. However, he cautioned that policy uncertainty in Washington supports a gradual approach, keeping traders on edge.

WTI Oil

Oil prices edged lower on Thursday after US President Donald Trump reiterated his pledge to increase domestic oil production, unsettling traders already concerned about a sharp rise in US crude inventories.

Trump's renewed push to boost US oil production—already the highest in the world—aims to lower energy prices and curb consumer inflation. However, analysts remain skeptical about whether US producers will ramp up drilling activity in the current market environment.

Oil prices also remained under pressure following Wednesday’s US crude inventory report, which revealed an 8.7 million-barrel increase last week—far exceeding expectations of a 2 million-barrel build, according to EIA data.

US 500

The US 500 closed higher for the third consecutive session on Thursday, but volatility persisted as investors navigated a wave of corporate earnings and economic data ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report.

US weekly jobless claims increased more than expected last week, reflecting a gradually slowing labor market.

The data comes ahead of Friday’s NFP report, which is expected to show that the US economy added 169,000 jobs in January, down from 256,000 in December.

E-commerce giant Amazon was set to report after the closing bell, with investors closely watching its AI investment strategy following the growing prominence of DeepSeek.

Alphabet recently announced higher-than-expected 2025 capital expenditures, triggering a stock decline. Meta Platforms and Microsoft have also defended their large-scale AI investments, positioning them as critical for future growth.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. Unemployment Rate, UoM Consumer Sentiment

EUR/USD

Gold

WTI Oil

US 500

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