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The dollar showed little volatility on Tuesday, with the dollar index (USDX) hovering around the 104.2 mark as uncertainty over the U.S. presidential race and anticipation of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve keeps traders on edge. Dollar traders now focus on the forthcoming U.S. inflation figures, scheduled for release on Friday, which could serve as the next catalyst.
Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction in September rose since yesterday, from 91.7% to 93.6% according to CME FedWatch. Expectations for a subsequent rate cut in November have also risen, from 51% to 55.1%.
In other news, the yen has surged as market turns bullish ahead of a central bank meeting where intervention measures are expected, something that caused a massive bailout of yen short sellers. The central bank is expected to announce a multi-year bond tapering strategy.
Wall Street sentiment soured on Tuesday as disappointing earnings from tech giants Tesla and Alphabet dragged down the US 500 and US tech 100. This ignited a prolonged sell-off in technology stocks, already reeling from heavy losses in recent weeks. In addition, profit-taking and a shift toward more cyclical sectors have added further pressure on the tech sector over the last month.
Tesla grappled with declining sales and escalating costs as it moved more resources into artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technology. Alphabet's earnings beat expectations, however, the internet giant’s slowing ad revenue growth and increased AI investments pose major challenges for the company.
In the spotlight for Wednesday are German, U.K. and U.S. flash manufacturing and services numbers along with US new home sales and an interest rate decision from Bank of Canada.
The EUR/USD experienced a 0.36% decline on Tuesday as investors prepare for the release of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures from both the EU and the US on Wednesday.
The Pan-EU PMI figures are scheduled for early Wednesday during the European market session. In the US, the Services PMI for July is anticipated to slightly decrease to 54.4 from June's 55.3.
Global markets are eagerly anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, prompting investors to closely monitor US economic indicators for signs of softening to confirm the rate outlook.
As the week progresses, the quarterly US Gross Domestic Product figures are scheduled for Thursday, and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation is on the agenda for Friday.
Gold prices experienced a slight increase on Tuesday as market participants eagerly awaited the release of U.S. economic data that could potentially impact the Federal Reserve's rate-cut schedule.
Investors are particularly interested in key U.S. data releases scheduled for later this week. These include the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report on Thursday and the June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index figure on Friday.
Bullion prices surged to a record high last week, largely driven by mounting expectations of imminent rate cuts. The diminishing opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold due to lower interest rates has been a significant contributing factor to this trend.
Oil prices posted moderate losses reaching a six-week low on Tuesday, driven by mounting expectations of a ceasefire in Gaza and escalating apprehensions about demand in China.
In the Middle East, endeavours to broker a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the militant group Hamas, as per U.S. President Joe Biden's proposal in May and facilitated by Egypt and Qatar, have been gaining momentum over the past month. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated to the families of hostages held in Gaza that an accord to secure their release might be imminent despite the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian enclave.
Conversely, the mounting speculation about interest rate reductions in September could serve as a support level for oil prices, as reduced borrowing expenses typically bolster oil demand.
U.S. stock index futures experienced a decline on Tuesday, particularly within the technology sector following lacklustre second-quarter earnings reports from major players such as Alphabet and Tesla.
Aftermarket trading revealed significant declines among major tech stocks, with Tesla Inc. standing out as the weakest performer among its heavyweight counterparts, experiencing a nearly 8% plunge as its second-quarter earnings failed to meet expectations amidst declining vehicle sales. Tesla's profit margins also plummeted to a five-year low, attributed to aggressive price reductions in response to heightened competition in crucial markets like China.
Meanwhile, Google parent company Alphabet Inc. experienced a 2.2% drop after the market close, despite surpassing second-quarter earnings projections due to increased advertising sales and robust demand for its cloud services.
Furthermore, market focus also turned to developments in the presidential race, following President Joe Biden's withdrawal and subsequent endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic frontrunner.
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