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22
Apr

In the week ahead: U.S. GDP, Core PCE Price Index, BOJ Monetary Policy Statement

calendar 22/04/2024 - 07:49 UTC

The dollar posted little change against most major currencies last week, with the dollar index (USDX) closing the weekly chart with a moderate increase of 0.17% and closing in on levels last seen in October 2023. According to reports, support in the dollar derives from a variety of factors among which are the solid economic data from the US economy, sticky inflation reports, hawkish comments from Fed officials, waning bets on a June rate cut, tensions in the Middle East and a flow of funds to the safe haven assets.

In other news, gold prices eased back to levels close to $2,350 per ounce following a jump to all-time highs of $2431.3 last week, after Iran said on Friday that it had no plan to retaliate following an apparent Israeli drone attack within its borders.

The two main crude oil benchmarks WTI and Brent declined on Friday, as concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East faded away. Both WTI and Brent fell by more than 4% for the whole of last week with investors now anticipating sanctions from the US against Iran and its oil production.

On the cryptos front, market participants the long-awaited halving occurred early on Saturday, with no particular increase in market volatility, while crypto traders are now positioning and preparing their investment portfolio for the possible upcoming price fluctuations. Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market currently stands at a market capitalization of 2.56 trillion with market participants and blockchain usage rising at high rates.

In Wall Street sentiment remains bearish despite some recovery seen in the US 30 with markets now shifting their focus to four of the “magnificent” seven stocks, Tesla Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Microsoft Corporation and Alphabet. Elsewhere, NVIDIA Corporation was one of the worst performers of the session, plummeting 10% on Friday to hit two-month lows.

Some key reports that could determine price action this week, are the US quarterly GDP report, the core PCE price index and BOJ’s monetary policy statement.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair ended the session on Friday 0.12% higher and managed to close the week with minor gains following a 1.8% sell-off in the previous week.

A somewhat softer US Dollar has given the common currency some oxygen on Friday, although the broader bearish trend remains unchanged. Earlier on Friday, Chicago Fed President Austen Goolsbee reiterated that the progress on inflation has stalled and that it will take longer than expected to achieve the 2% target.

On the contrary, ECB’s President Lagarde suggested that interest rate cuts will likely come in June. This puts the European Central Bank in the unusual situation of acting ahead of the Fed, which is expected to keep the Euro under pressure.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold prices rose on Friday and logged a fifth consecutive weekly rise, as fears of further retaliation between Iran and Israel triggered safe-haven demand. Explosions echoed over an Iranian city early on Friday in what sources described as an Israeli attack, but Tehran played down the incident and indicated it had no plans for retaliation.

Furthermore, Fed officials have consolidated around the idea that there is no urgency to cut interest rates. The market currently sees a about 67% chance of a rate cut in September. Elevated interest rates reduce the appeal of holding non-yielding gold.

Gold

WTI Oil

Oil settled slightly higher on Friday, but posted a weekly decline, after Iran played down a reported Israeli attack on its soil, a sign that an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East might be avoided.

Both benchmarks spiked more than $3 a barrel early in the session after explosions were heard in the Iranian city of Isfahan but gains were capped after Tehran played down the incident and said it did not plan to retaliate.

Oil prices also faced pressure from a recent surge in the dollar, as traders swiftly scaled back bets on early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

WTI Oil

US 500

U.S. main indexes were mixed at closed on Friday as US 500 and US Tech 100 ended lower on Friday as Netflix shares weighed, while American Express kept US 30 afloat after quarterly earnings from both companies.

Netflix Inc said it would stop reporting quarterly membership numbers and average revenue per membership starting next year with its Q1 2025. The announcement overshadowed the video streaming giant’s better-than-expected first-quarter results, sending Netflix shares more than 9% lower.

American Express stock rose 6% after the financial services giant's first-quarter profit vaulted past estimates, driven by an affluent customer base that increased spending as recession fears ebbed on Friday. Focus now turns to upcoming quarterly earnings from some of Wall Street’s biggest tech titans, due later in the week.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

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